Under the influence of the epidemic, Europe and the United States and many other overseas regions in the recent frequent closure of the country, the city, factory shutdown, business shutdown is not new. At present, the global cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia exceeds 400 million cases, and the cumulative number of deaths is 5,890,000 cases. In many countries and regions such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Russia, France, Japan, Thailand, etc., the number of confirmed cases in 24 districts is more than 10,000, and leading chemical companies in many regions will face shutdown and production suspension.

The multi-point outbreak of the epidemic has also caught up with the escalating geopolitical conflict, with major changes in the situation in eastern Ukraine, which has had an impact on the supply of crude oil and natural gas overseas. At the same time, many chemical majors such as Crestron, Total Energy, Dow, Inglis, Arkema, etc. have announced force majeure, which will affect product output and even cut off supply for several weeks, which will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the current market of Chinese chemicals.

In the geopolitical conflict escalation and overseas epidemic and other force majeure frequently, China’s chemical market appeared another storm – many dependent on imported raw materials began to quietly rise.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology data, in more than 130 kinds of key basic chemical materials, 32% of China’s varieties are still blank, 52% of the varieties are still dependent on imports. Such as high-end electronic chemicals, high-end functional materials, high-end polyolefins, aromatics, chemical fibers, etc., and most of the above products and industry chain subdivision raw materials belong to the basic category of bulk chemical raw materials.

These products from the beginning of the year, the price trend gradually soared higher, up to 8200 yuan / ton, up nearly 30%.

Toluene price: currently quoted at 6930 yuan / ton, up 1349.6 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 24.18%.
Acrylic acid prices: currently quoted at 16,100 yuan / ton, up 2,900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 21.97%.
N-butanol price: the current offer 10,066.67 yuan / ton, up 1,766.67 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 21.29%.
DOP price: the current offer 11850 yuan / ton, up 2075 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 21.23%.
Ethylene price: the current offer 7728.93 yuan / ton, up 1266 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 19.59%.
PX price: the current offer 8000 yuan / ton, up 1300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 19.4%.
Phthalic anhydride price: the current offer 8225 yuan / ton, up 1050 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 14.63%.
Bisphenol A price: the current offer 18650 yuan / ton, up 1775 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 10.52%.
Pure benzene price: the current offer 7770 yuan / ton, up 540 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 7.47%.
Styrene prices: currently quoted at 8890 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 5.83%.
Propylene price: the current offer 7880.67 yuan / ton, up 332.07 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 4.40%.
Ethylene glycol prices: currently quoted at 5091.67 yuan / ton, up 183.34 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 3.74%.
Nitrile rubber (NBR) prices: currently quoted at 24,100 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 1.69%.
Propylene glycol prices: currently quoted at 16,600 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 1.22%.
Silicone prices: the current offer 34,000 yuan / ton, up 8200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 31.78%.

Public data show that China’s new chemical materials production of about 22.1 million tons, the domestic self-sufficiency rate increased to 65%, but the output value of only 5% of the total domestic chemical output, so it is still the biggest short board of China’s chemical industry.

Some domestic chemical companies said that the scarcity of imported goods, is not precisely the opportunity of national products? But it turns out that this statement is quite some pie-in-the-sky. The structural contradiction of “excess at the low end and insufficient at the high end” in China’s chemical industry is very prominent. Most of the domestic products are still in the low end of the industrial value chain, some chemical raw materials have been localized, but the gap between product quality and imported products is large, failing to achieve large-scale industrialized production. This situation in the past may be able to buy overseas high-priced goods to solve, but the current market is difficult to meet the import demand for high-end raw materials.

The supply shortage and price increase of chemicals will gradually be transmitted to the downstream, leading to a number of industries such as home appliances, furniture, transportation, transportation, real estate, etc. There is a shortage of supplies and other situations, which is very unfavorable for the entire industrial and livelihood industry chain. Industry insiders said that at present, crude oil, coal, natural gas and other bulk energy is facing a supply crisis, multiple factors are complex, the subsequent price increases and shortages of chemicals may be difficult to achieve a reversal in the short term.